AEGISA churn decision system · Vinctum
Aegis turns churn risk into a decision, with its reasons and its cost: whom to intervene with, how, and when spending would lose money.
Working MVP · Looking for a first design partner
Usage down 41% in 30 days · last login 19 days ago
Expected value ₺786. The pricier options are not worth their cost.
01 Why Aegis
02 Platform
Most churn projects end with a score. In Aegis, the score is only one of six inputs to the decision.
Data
Customer history and churn outcome. No direct identifiers needed.
Data contractFeature pipeline
The same feature state in training and serving. No train/serve skew.
PolarsCalibrated risk
If it says 78%, it means about 78%. Probabilities are measured and tuned.
XGBoost · LightGBM · CatBoostReasons
Why the risk is high and what would change it, in plain language.
SHAP · DiCEEffect
The real effect of an intervention. Without treatment/control data it is marked as simulation.
T-learner upliftDecision
Risk × effect × customer value − cost. Nothing is spent unless it is positive.
CLTV · margin · WACC03 Foundations
Role-based access
JWT and RBAC scopes. Every request runs in its own tenant context.
Redacted audit log
Every decision is logged; sensitive fields are masked before they are written.
Replayable decisions
Model and policy registries are enough to reproduce a decision later from the same input.
Evidence-guarded effect
Without a real treatment/control column, uplift is never presented as proof.
Drift and governance
Drift, policy and customer drill-down in one operations dashboard.
On your infrastructure
Runs in Docker, with Postgres, Redis and DuckDB integrations ready.
It runs at pilot scale today. Deployment, data access and retention are set in the pilot agreement.
A working product.
Risk prediction, reasons, expected-value recommendations and the audit log work end to end.
An effect not yet proven.
There is no verified retention or ROI figure. We will measure the real effect on a first design partner's data, with a control group, whatever the result.
05 Vinctum
Vinctum is an independent product studio building software that makes decisions explainable and verifiable after the fact. The principle behind Aegis, that every decision can be accounted for, runs through our open infrastructure too.
06 Pilot
One data table, a 30-minute call and a controlled measurement. See which intervention adds value for which customer, on your own data.